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Sun 18 Oct · 22:00

Bay FC W vs Portland Thorns W prediction

Follow Bay FC WFollow Portland Thorns WFollow this match
Round
Group Stage
Venue
PayPal Park
Referee
Alexandra Billeter

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Bay FC W
36Poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-2D-2L · -4 goal difference

Portland Thorns W
47Average

Last 5 matches · 1W-3D-1L · +1 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Portland Thorns W or Draw

BetGenius backs Portland Thorns W or Draw (Double Chance) at 73% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

73%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Bay FC welcome Portland Thorns to PayPal Park looking to arrest a difficult stretch of form in the NWSL. The hosts sit 14th in the table with 26 points from 27 fixtures, having suffered 15 defeats across the campaign. Defensive vulnerability has been an issue recently, underscored by conceding eight goals combined across their last two matches against Kansas City and Orlando Pride.

Portland Thorns enter the contest in 7th position with 43 points, firmly in the playoff quarter-final positions. While the Thorns have won only one of their last five outings, that single victory was an emphatic 4-1 away triumph against Orlando Pride. Across 27 matches, Portland have produced 45 goals, spear-headed by S. Smith who has tallied 11 league goals.

The historical edge also rests with the visitors, who claimed a 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture in May 2026. While Portland have conceded two goals per game on their travels, Bay FC have found victories hard to come by at home with seven losses from 13 games on their own ground.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Portland Thorns hold 43 points in 7th position compared to Bay FC sitting 14th on 26 points.
  2. Portland have failed to find the net in only two of their 27 regular-season matches.
  3. Bay FC have lost 15 of 27 league fixtures, including three of their last five games.
  4. Portland won the reverse fixture 2-0 against Bay FC in May 2026.
  5. Bay FC have suffered seven defeats in 13 home matches this campaign.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Bay FC W at homePortland Thorns W away
14
Played
14
4-3-7
W-D-L
5-3-6
1.1
Scored /game
1.6
1.4
Conceded /game
2
29%
Clean sheets
14%
29%
Failed to score
7%
80%
BTTS (last 5)
100%
80%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 2.7 goals per game (Bay FC W at home plus Portland Thorns W away).

Players

Key players this season

Portland Thorns W

  • S. Smith11G
  • P. Tordin7A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
4Kansas City WPromotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)28+1247
5Utah Royals WPromotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)29+747
6Angel City WPromotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)28+1746
7Portland Thorns WPromotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)28+644
8Seattle Reign FC WPromotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)29+344
9North Carolina Courage W28+1042
10Denver Summit W28+738
11Orlando Pride W28-636
12Houston Dash W29-433
13Boston Legacy W28-932
14Bay FC W28-1427
15Racing Louisville W28-1724
16Chicago Red Stars W29-5217
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
2
Bay FC W
1
Draws
3
Portland Thorns W

Portland Thorns W have won 3 of the last 6 meetings, averaging 3.2 goals a game, both teams scored in 67% of them.

  • 2026-10-18Bay FC W2-2Portland Thorns W
  • 2026-05-21Portland Thorns W2-0Bay FC W
  • 2025-10-05Portland Thorns W2-1Bay FC W
  • 2025-06-07Bay FC W1-0Portland Thorns W
  • 2024-08-31Portland Thorns W1-3Bay FC W
BetGenius

Our record in NWSL

68%32 won from 47 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Portland Thorns W or Draw
73%
Confidence

Portland Thorns hold a 17-point advantage over Bay FC in the standings and have suffered only eight defeats in 27 games compared to Bay FC's 15. The Thorns are exceptionally dependable in front of goal, failing to score in only two matches all season, led by S. Smith with 11 goals. Bay FC have won just four of 13 home games and conceded five goals in their most recent fixture against Kansas City. While Portland have shown some defensive leaks on the road that leave the draw viable, backing the visitors to secure at least a point remains strongly supported.

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Published October 17, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.