BetGenius
Round
League Stage - 2
Venue
Estádio da Luz, Lisbon
Referee
Nikola Dabanovic
Form

Recent form

Benfica
84Excellent

Last 5 matches · 4W-0D-1L · +8 goal difference

Celtic
43Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · +3 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Combo Bet
Benfica or Draw + Over 2.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Benfica or Draw + Over 2.5 Goals (Combo Bet) at 70% confidence — a solid call.

70%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Benfica come into the Europa League group tie buoyed by an impressive home record – three wins from three games, scoring 14 and conceding just two. Their recent form of LWWDWWW shows they rebound quickly after setbacks and they have averaged 4.7 goals per home match. Celtic, by contrast, have only a single league game on record, a 1‑3 loss at home, and have struggled to find the net away from Glasgow, managing just one goal in four recent outings. The Portuguese side also enjoy a strong defensive record overall, conceding less than one goal per game, while Celtic have allowed an average of three goals when playing at home.

Head‑to‑head meetings are scarce, but Benfica won the 2012 encounter 2‑1 and drew the other, suggesting a slight edge historically. Injuries further tilt the balance: Benfica miss two squad members, whereas Celtic have a longer list of unavailable players, including several likely starters. All indicators point to Benfica dominating possession and chances, with Celtic likely to be on the back foot.

Given Benfica’s prolific scoring at home and Celtic’s defensive frailties, the match is expected to produce several goals, and both teams have a realistic chance of finding the net.

Availability

Team news

Benfica

  • D. BanjaquiMuscle Injury
  • E. BarrenecheaInjury
  • J. KaminskiMuscle Injury
  • L. BarreiroInactive
  • J. DuranInactive
  • D. FerreiraInactive

Celtic

  • C. Carter-VickersHealth problems
  • L. EmenaloOff the roster
  • A. JohnstonLeg Injury
  • JotaOff the roster
  • S. MheukaOff the roster
  • Yang Hyun-JunHamstring Injury
  • J. van den BergOff the roster
  • A. TrustyInactive
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Benfica at homeCeltic away
4
Played
4
3-1-0
W-D-L
4-0-0
2.3
Scored /game
2.5
1
Conceded /game
0.5
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
60%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 4.8 goals per game (Benfica at home plus Celtic away).

Players

Key players this season

Benfica

  • G. Prestianni2A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1BenficaPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+89
2Bayer LeverkusenPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+89
3BournemouthPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+79
4Ferencvarosi TCPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+69
32Lech Poznan3-81
33Plzen3-50
34Marseille3-50
35Celtic3-60
36Ararat-Armenia3-90
History

Head-to-head

2
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Celtic

Benfica have won 2 of the last 3 meetings.

  • 2026-10-15Benfica4-1Celtic
  • 2012-11-20Benfica2-1Celtic
  • 2012-09-19Celtic0-0Benfica
BetGenius

Our record in UEFA Europa League

60%59 won from 98 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

4 published markets

Combo BetWON
Combo Bet
Benfica or Draw + Over 2.5 Goals
70%
Both must land · no better than

Benfica or Draw — 78% confidence

Benfica’s unbeaten home run, high goal average and Celtic’s weak defensive record create a strong probability that the home side will avoid defeat. Even if Celtic manage to hold on for a draw, the likelihood of a home win remains high, justifying a hedge on home or draw.

Over 2.5 Goals — 70% confidence

Benfica average 4.7 goals at home while conceding under one per game. Celtic have allowed three goals on average at home. Combining these trends points to a match with at least three goals, making the over‑2.5 market attractive.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Combo BetWON
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
Confidence

Celtic have scored in recent fixtures, including a 2‑0 win at Motherwell, while Benfica consistently find the net. The contrast between Benfica’s attack and Celtic’s occasional scoring suggests both sides are likely to hit the net.

Combo BetWON
Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
70%
Confidence

Benfica average 4.7 goals at home while conceding under one per game. Celtic have allowed three goals on average at home. Combining these trends points to a match with at least three goals, making the over‑2.5 market attractive.

Combo BetWON
Double Chance
Benfica or Draw
78%
Confidence

Benfica’s unbeaten home run, high goal average and Celtic’s weak defensive record create a strong probability that the home side will avoid defeat. Even if Celtic manage to hold on for a draw, the likelihood of a home win remains high, justifying a hedge on home or draw.

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Published October 14, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.