BetGenius
Full time
0-2
Wed 7 Oct · 03:30

Mexico vs Chile prediction

Round
Friendly International
Venue
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles
Referee
Filip Dujic, Canada
Form

Recent form

Mexico
35Poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-2D-2L · -2 goal difference

Chile
23Very poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-0D-4L · -6 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Over 2.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 70% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

70%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Mexico host Chile in an international friendly, looking to bounce back from a 3-0 defeat against the United States. Prior to that setback, Mexico had demonstrated consistent attacking output at home, where they have scored 15 goals across eight home fixtures while maintaining a solid offensive rhythm.

Chile travel with defensive vulnerabilities having conceded eight goals in their four recorded fixtures, averaging two goals conceded per match. However, they have shown the ability to find the net on their travels, scoring five times across those same four games, including two goals against the United States.

Historical encounters between these two nations have traditionally been open, high-scoring affairs, averaging 4.4 goals per meeting across their last five clashes with four of those matches surpassing the 2.5 goal mark.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Chile have conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game across their recorded fixtures without keeping a clean sheet.
  2. Mexico have averaged 1.9 goals per match across their eight home fixtures.
  3. Four of Chile's last five matches have produced three or more total goals.
  4. Historical head-to-head meetings between Mexico and Chile average 4.4 goals per game, with 80 percent seeing over 2.5 goals.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Mexico at homeChile away
8
Played
4
4-4-0
W-D-L
1-0-3
1.9
Scored /game
1.3
0.5
Conceded /game
2
50%
Clean sheets
—
13%
Failed to score
—
60%
BTTS (last 5)
80%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
80%

Combined scoring rate: 3.2 goals per game (Mexico at home plus Chile away).

History

Head-to-head

1
Mexico
2
Draws
2
Chile

Chile have won 2 of the last 5 meetings, averaging 4.4 goals a game, both teams scored in 60% of them.

  • 2021-12-09Mexico2-2Chile
  • 2019-03-23Mexico3-1Chile
  • 2018-10-17Mexico0-1Chile
  • 2016-06-19Mexico0-7Chile
  • 2015-06-15Chile3-3Mexico
BetGenius

Our record in Friendlies

62%53 won from 86 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

2 published markets

GoalsLOST
Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
70%
Confidence

Chile have conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game while scoring 1.3 goals per game across their recent outings, with four of their last five matches producing at least three goals. Mexico average 1.9 goals scored per fixture at home and should exploit Chile's lack of clean sheets. Combined with an extensive history of high-scoring head-to-head fixtures where 80 percent of the last five meetings went over 2.5 goals, the evidence strongly points towards three or more total goals rather than stopping at two.

FeaturedLOST
Double Chance
Mexico or Draw
76%
Confidence

Mexico remain undefeated across eight home matches with four wins and four draws, conceding an average of only 0.5 goals per game. Chile have suffered three defeats in their four away fixtures, conceding an average of two goals per game and failing to keep a clean sheet. Covering the home win or draw aligns with Mexico's resilience at home and Chile's recent away form.

Explore

More from BetGenius

Published October 5, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.