Italy

Italy hold a comprehensive advantage in this matchup after defeating Türkiye 4-1 away just one week prior. Türkiye have endured a difficult Nations League campaign, losing all three group fixtures while conceding eight goals and scoring only once. Across four historical meetings between the nations, Italy have claimed three victories alongside one draw, while Türkiye remain winless in this fixture. Although Italy fell 2-0 at home to Belgium, their commanding performance against Türkiye on 28 September and the visitors' ongoing three-match losing sequence point toward another home win.

The evidence materially supports three or more goals in this contest. The reverse fixture played just a week earlier produced five goals in a 4-1 victory for Italy, highlighting the mismatch between Italy's attacking quality and Türkiye's porous defensive structure. Türkiye have conceded eight goals in three Nations League matches (an average of 2.7 goals against per game), conceding three against Belgium and four against Italy. Furthermore, three of the four head-to-head meetings between these nations have cleared the 2.5 line, producing scorelines of 3-0, 3-2, and 4-1 for an overall head-to-head average of 3.25 goals per game.

France have established strong form in the group stage with two wins from two matches, scoring two goals and conceding zero. Italy have had mixed results, losing 2-0 to Belgium before securing a 4-1 victory over Türkiye. France have maintained tight defensive control across both competitive fixtures, which provides a high probability of securing at least a point on home soil.

Both teams enter this fixture with zero points after opening defeats, creating a dynamic where neither side can afford to sit back passively. Türkiye have seen at least two goals scored in three of their last five matches, including a 3-2 win against the USA and a 2-1 victory over Venezuela. Italy's campaign opened with two goals conceded in a 2-0 loss, and previous fixtures also produced scorelines of 1-1, 2-0, and 1-4. While a line of 2.5 goals appears demanding given recent 1-0 scorelines across both teams' schedules, reaching at least two goals fits the competitive context and previous high-scoring competitive meetings between the two sides.

Italy or Draw — 75% confidence

Italy hold an exceptional head-to-head record against Belgium, having won four and drawn one of their previous five competitive encounters. The Azzurri are unbeaten in their last four matches overall and have shown strong defensive discipline, keeping clean sheets in three of those fixtures. Backing Italy to avoid defeat covers both the home victory and a stalemate against a Belgian squad missing key defensive options like Zeno Debast.

BTTS Yes — 66% confidence

Belgium have found the net in four of their last five fixtures, generating 13 goals across that span, but they have also failed to keep a clean sheet in four straight games. Italy have scored in each of their last five outings. In head-to-head history, three of the last five meetings between these two sides have ended with both teams finding the back of the net.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and both teams to score), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Italy hold an exceptional head-to-head record against Belgium, having won four and drawn one of their previous five competitive encounters. The Azzurri are unbeaten in their last four matches overall and have shown strong defensive discipline, keeping clean sheets in three of those fixtures. Backing Italy to avoid defeat covers both the home victory and a stalemate against a Belgian squad missing key defensive options like Zeno Debast.

Belgium have found the net in four of their last five fixtures, generating 13 goals across that span, but they have also failed to keep a clean sheet in four straight games. Italy have scored in each of their last five outings. In head-to-head history, three of the last five meetings between these two sides have ended with both teams finding the back of the net.