St Patrick's Athl.

Only 20 % of the last ten head‑to‑head games featured both teams scoring, and both clubs have strong defensive records (Derry 1.2 GA at home, St Patrick's 0.7 GA at home). Their recent matches show few goals – Derry have kept clean sheets in three of their last five, and St Patrick's have kept six clean sheets in their last ten. Combined with low average goals per game (1.5 in the rivalry) the evidence points to a high probability that both sides will not score.

St Patrick's Athletic hold a solid record on home turf against Bohemians, winning two and drawing two of their last four home head-to-head encounters. While Bohemians have scored freely at home recently, they have lost both of their last two away fixtures, conceding six goals across those trips. With five of the last ten meetings between these rivals finishing level and an average of 2.0 goals per match across that sample, backing the hosts to win or draw covers the most probable knockout scenarios.