BetGenius
Round
Clausura - 9
Venue
Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Itagui
Referee
F. Trujillo
Form

Recent form

Atletico Nacional
64Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +5 goal difference

Deportes Tolima
45Average

Last 5 matches · 0W-4D-1L · -1 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Atletico Nacional or Draw

BetGenius backs Atletico Nacional or Draw (Double Chance) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

78%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

League leaders Atletico Nacional return to home territory looking to extend their commanding run in Primera A against sixth-placed Deportes Tolima. Atletico Nacional have maintained an unbeaten home record this campaign, collecting 14 wins and two draws across 16 fixtures at their home stadium while scoring 41 goals and conceding only eight.

Deportes Tolima enter this fixture in the middle of a five-match winless sequence across all competitions, having registered three consecutive draws against Chico, Fortaleza FC, and America de Cali following back-to-back defeats to Once Caldas and Santa Fe. Away from home, Tolima have picked up four victories, six draws, and six defeats from 16 attempts, averaging 1.1 goals scored per away fixture.

Head-to-head records at Atletico Nacional's venue also tilt towards the hosts, who have won four of the previous five home encounters against Tolima, including a 3-1 victory in their most recent clash in May 2026. With Tolima frequently involved in tight, low-scoring contests on the road and Atletico Nacional conceding just 0.5 goals per game at home, the hosts hold a solid tactical advantage.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Atletico Nacional are undefeated at home across 16 matches with 14 wins and two draws.
  2. Atletico Nacional concede an average of only 0.5 goals per game when playing at home.
  3. Deportes Tolima are on a five-match winless run with three draws and two losses in their last five fixtures.
  4. Atletico Nacional have won four of their last five home head-to-head meetings against Deportes Tolima.
  5. Four of Deportes Tolima's last five competitive matches have finished with under 2.5 total goals.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Atletico Nacional at homeDeportes Tolima away
17
Played
17
14-3-0
W-D-L
4-7-6
2.4
Scored /game
1
0.5
Conceded /game
1.1
53%
Clean sheets
29%
12%
Failed to score
41%
60%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
20%

Combined scoring rate: 3.4 goals per game (Atletico Nacional at home plus Deportes Tolima away).

Players

Key players this season

Atletico Nacional

  • A. Morelos14G · 6A
  • J. Rengifo7A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1Atletico NacionalPost season qualification19+2040
2JuniorPost season qualification19+735
3Deportivo PastoPost season qualification19+434
4America de CaliPost season qualification19+1033
5Once CaldasPost season qualification19+933
6Deportes TolimaPost season qualification19+1031
7Santa FePost season qualification19+729
8Internacional de BogotaPost season qualification19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
History

Head-to-head

5
Atletico Nacional
2
Draws
3
Deportes Tolima

Atletico Nacional have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.7 goals a game, only 40% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-05-23Atletico Nacional3-1Deportes Tolima
  • 2026-05-16Deportes Tolima0-1Atletico Nacional
  • 2026-03-02Deportes Tolima1-0Atletico Nacional
  • 2025-08-02Deportes Tolima0-0Atletico Nacional
  • 2025-03-20Atletico Nacional4-3Deportes Tolima
BetGenius

Our record in Primera A

71%17 won from 24 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

2 published markets

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Atletico Nacional or Draw
78%
Confidence

Atletico Nacional boast an outstanding home record of 14 wins and two draws with zero defeats in 16 home league outings, supported by an offensive output of 2.6 goals scored per game and a defensive concession rate of just 0.5 goals per match. Key forward A. Morelos provides reliable attacking threat with 14 goals and six assists. Meanwhile, Deportes Tolima have failed to win any of their last five matches, with three straight draws highlighting their resilience to take points while limiting their winning probability. Backing Atletico Nacional to win or draw covers the most probable match outcomes, with four of Tolima's last five games staying under the 2.5 total goals line.

GoalsLOST
Total Goals
Over 1.5 Goals
82%
Confidence

Atletico Nacional average 2.6 goals scored per home match and have failed to score in only one of their 16 league games on home turf. Their last five competitive outings have all produced at least two goals, including a recent 3-1 home win over Junior and a 3-2 away victory against Internacional de Bogota. Meanwhile, Deportes Tolima concede an average of 1.2 goals per away game while scoring 1.1. While Nacional's strong home defensive record of conceding just 0.5 goals per match makes reaching three goals less straightforward, the likelihood of two or more total goals is strongly backed by the hosts' offensive potency and historical meetings at this ground.

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Published October 7, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.