Belgium have been reliable in front of goal, scoring across each of their last five fixtures and putting two past Italy in their group opener. France boast supreme finishing ability through Kylian Mbappe, who scored in their opening round win over Turkiye. While both sides kept clean sheets in round one and recent head-to-head matches have often been tactically disciplined, missing key defensive personnel like William Saliba for France and Amadou Onana and Zeno Debast for Belgium makes a two-goal baseline highly probable. The step up to three or more goals is less secure given that three of the last five head-to-head meetings finished with two or fewer goals, making the over 1.5 line the well-supported call.
- Round
- League A - 2
- Venue
- Roi Baudouin, Brussels
- Referee
- Rade Obrenovič, Slovenia
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Recent form
Last 5 matches · 3W-0D-2L · +6 goal difference
Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -2 goal difference
Our verdict
BetGenius backs Over 1.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 74% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 1.5 Goals.
Match preview
Belgium host France in League A of the UEFA Nations League following winning starts for both nations in their opening group fixtures. Belgium secured an impressive 2-0 away victory over Italy, continuing an attacking run in which they have scored in each of their last five matches across all competitions. With Kevin De Bruyne creating chances and Dodi Lukebakio finding the net, the hosts possess clear quality in the final third.
France opened their campaign with a 1-0 victory away to Turkiye courtesy of a Kylian Mbappe goal. Les Bleus have historically controlled this fixture, winning each of the last five head-to-head encounters against Belgium, including competitive victories in 2021 and 2024.
Both teams enter this contest with defensive absences to manage. Belgium are without Amadou Onana and Zeno Debast, while France must cope without William Saliba. These defensive adjustments, combined with the presence of high-calibre attackers on both sides, create favorable conditions for goals.
Key factors
- Belgium have scored in five consecutive matches, averaging two goals per game in their recent Nations League outing against Italy.
- France have won all of the last five head-to-head meetings between the two sides, scoring in four of those encounters.
- Defensive absences are notable on both sides, with William Saliba out for France and both Amadou Onana and Zeno Debast sidelined for Belgium.
- Key attackers Kylian Mbappe and Dodi Lukebakio both opened their Nations League campaigns with goals in round one.
Team news
Belgium
- A. OnanaCruciate Ligament Rupture
- Z. DebastWound
Team news last updated Jul 10 (106 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.
France
- W. SalibaBack Bruise
Team news last updated Jul 18 (98 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.
Statistical comparison
Key players this season
France
- M. Olise4G · 2A
- R. Cherki2A
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FrancePlay Offs: Quarter-finals | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | ItalyPlay Offs: Quarter-finals | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | BelgiumPossible Play-off | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | TürkiyePossible Play-off | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 0
- Belgium
- 0
- Draws
- 6
- France
France have won 6 of the last 6 meetings, averaging 2.2 goals a game, only 33% went over 2.5.
- 2026-09-28Belgium0-1France
- 2024-10-14Belgium1-2France
- 2024-09-09France2-0Belgium
- 2024-07-01France1-0Belgium
- 2021-10-07Belgium2-3France
Our record in UEFA Nations League
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.2 published markets
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More from BetGenius
Understand these picks
- Total goals: Goals predictions · How goals markets settle · Total goals record
Published September 27, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.

