BetGenius
Round
Regular Season - 7
Venue
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Referee
John Busby, England
Form

Recent form

Derby
22Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-2D-3L · -5 goal difference

Birmingham
89Excellent

Last 5 matches · 4W-1D-0L · +9 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Birmingham or Draw

BetGenius backs Birmingham or Draw (Double Chance) at 70% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

70%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Derby enter this Championship encounter sitting 22nd in the table after a difficult start to the campaign that has yielded four defeats from their opening six league fixtures. The Rams have found positive results hard to come by on home soil, registering one draw and two defeats in three home matches while conceding six goals and scoring only two.

Birmingham occupy 15th place with seven points from their six games, having proved tough to break down despite a high volume of draws. With only one defeat in six league outings and a positive away record of one victory, one draw, and one loss, the visitors will look to capitalise on Derby's defensive vulnerabilities and mounting absentee list.

Derby are coping with a lengthy injury report that includes P. Agyemang, R. Brewster, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, C. Morris, D. Murkin, and L. Travis, which limits their tactical depth. Birmingham also miss M. Leonard, D. Gray, and T. Gardner-Hickman, but their steady run of picking up points across most fixtures gives them a slight edge in stability heading into this clash.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Derby are winless in their three home league matches this season, recording one draw and two defeats.
  2. Birmingham have suffered just one defeat in their six Championship matches so far, picking up four draws and one win.
  3. Derby are missing numerous squad members through injury, including P. Agyemang, R. Brewster, and C. Forsyth.
  4. Derby have conceded 11 goals in six league matches, averaging 1.8 goals conceded per game overall.
Availability

Team news

Derby

  • P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
  • M. ClarkeCalf Injury
  • C. ForsythKnee Injury
  • S. LangasInjury
  • D. MurkinHamstring Injury
  • C. TaylorInjury
  • J. Widell ZetterstromKnee Injury
  • E. CashinInactive
  • M. JohnstonInactive

Birmingham

  • M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
  • Paik Seung-HoHealth problems
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Derby at homeBirmingham away
6
Played
5
0-2-4
W-D-L
3-1-1
0.7
Scored /game
1.2
1.7
Conceded /game
0.8
0%
Clean sheets
40%
50%
Failed to score
20%
80%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
80%

Combined scoring rate: 1.9 goals per game (Derby at home plus Birmingham away).

Players

Key players this season

Birmingham

  • L. Millar4G · 3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1SwanseaPromotion - Premier League11+823
2West HamPromotion - Premier League11+1822
3MiddlesbroughPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)11+622
4BirminghamPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)11+920
5West BromPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+320
6Stoke CityPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+219
7WolvesPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+318
20Watford11-911
21Norwich11-49
22BurnleyRelegation - League One11-58
23DerbyRelegation - League One11-116
24PrestonRelegation - League One11-154
History

Head-to-head

5
Derby
3
Draws
2
Birmingham

Derby have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 3.3 goals a game, both teams scored in 70% of them.

  • 2026-03-21Derby1-0Birmingham
  • 2025-12-26Birmingham1-1Derby
  • 2022-01-30Derby2-2Birmingham
  • 2021-09-10Birmingham2-0Derby
  • 2021-04-24Derby1-2Birmingham
BetGenius

Our record in Championship

63%137 won from 216 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Birmingham or Draw
70%
Confidence

Derby have struggled for traction this season, losing four of their six league fixtures and remaining winless at home with two defeats and a draw. Their defensive record at Pride Park has seen them concede an average of 2.0 goals per game, compounded by a long list of injured regulars. Birmingham have lost only once in six Championship outings, drawing four times and securing a victory at Wrexham. While Birmingham do not win frequently away from home, their resilience makes them capable of avoiding defeat against an out-of-form Derby side.

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Published September 11, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.