Derby have failed to win any of their five home league matches this season, suffering three defeats and conceding nine goals. In contrast, Stoke City sit eighth in the table and have scored in all ten of their Championship fixtures, averaging 1.4 goals per away game. With Derby missing numerous squad members including Widell Zetterstrom, Clarke, Forsyth, and Murkin, Stoke have a clear advantage in depth and form to claim at least a point.
Derby vs Stoke City prediction
- Round
- Regular Season - 11
- Venue
- Pride Park Stadium, Derby
- Referee
- Oliver Langford, England
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Recent form
Last 5 matches · 0W-2D-3L · -5 goal difference
Last 5 matches · 4W-0D-1L · +3 goal difference
Our verdict
BetGenius backs Stoke City or Draw (Double Chance) at 75% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.
Match preview
Derby enter this Championship encounter languishing in 23rd place, having secured just one win from their opening ten league fixtures. The Rams have struggled for momentum at Pride Park, where they remain winless across five home outings with two draws and three defeats. Compounding their on-pitch difficulties is a lengthy injury list that includes key defensive personnel such as Craig Forsyth, Matt Clarke, and goalkeeper Jacob Widell Zetterstrom.
Stoke City arrive in far more encouraging shape, occupying eighth position and sitting within the play-off picture on 16 points. The Potters have shown sharp attacking consistency throughout the campaign, having scored in every single league match played so far. Despite a recent narrow 3-2 home reverse against Middlesbrough, their away record remains solid with two victories and a draw from five trips.
While Derby boast an encouraging historical record against Stoke on home turf, current form and squad condition tell a contrasting story. Stoke's reliable finishing and Derby's recurring defensive vulnerabilities make the visitors well positioned to leave Pride Park with at least a share of the points.
Key factors
- Derby are winless at home in the Championship this season, taking two points from five matches at Pride Park.
- Stoke City have scored in all ten league fixtures this season, failing to score zero times.
- Derby are missing several key players through injury, including Matt Clarke, Craig Forsyth, Derry Murkin, and Jacob Widell Zetterstrom.
- Stoke have taken seven points from five away matches, winning twice and drawing once on the road.
Team news
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- M. ClarkeCalf Injury
- C. ForsythKnee Injury
- S. LangasInjury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- C. TaylorInjury
- J. Widell ZetterstromKnee Injury
- E. CashinInactive
- M. JohnstonInactive
Stoke City
- A. AmpahKnee Injury
- E. BocatInjury
- A. CresswellKnee Injury
- S. GallagherInjury
- S. IngelssonMuscle Injury
Statistical comparison
Combined scoring rate: 2 goals per game (Derby at home plus Stoke City away).
Key players this season
Stoke City
- E. Galbraith3A
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MiddlesbroughPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals) | 11 | +6 | 22 |
| 4 | BirminghamPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals) | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | West BromPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 6 | Stoke CityPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 7 | WolvesPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 | SouthamptonPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 11 | +11 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | -9 | 11 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 22 | BurnleyRelegation - League One | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | DerbyRelegation - League One | 11 | -11 | 6 |
| 24 | PrestonRelegation - League One | 11 | -15 | 4 |
Head-to-head
- 4
- Derby
- 2
- Draws
- 4
- Stoke City
the last 10 meetings are split 4-4 with 2 drawn, averaging 2.0 goals a game.
- 2026-10-17Derby0-1Stoke City
- 2026-04-06Derby2-0Stoke City
- 2025-08-09Stoke City3-1Derby
- 2025-05-03Derby0-0Stoke City
- 2024-11-02Stoke City2-1Derby
Our record in Championship
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.1 published market
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- Double chance: Double chance predictions · How double chance works · Double chance record
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Published October 15, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.

