Fluminense have suffered only one defeat in fifteen home league matches this season, winning eleven and drawing three. Their defensive solidity at home, where they concede an average of only 0.9 goals per game, provides a reliable foundation. Santos have lost six of their fifteen road matches and concede an average of 1.7 goals away from home. Historical meetings in Rio also favor the hosts, who boast three wins and one draw in the last four home head-to-head fixtures. Although Fluminense are missing attacking options in German Cano and John Kennedy, the double chance covers both the home victory and the draw while reflecting the tight defensive profile typical of this matchup, where seven of the last ten meetings stayed under 2.5 goals.
Fluminense vs Santos prediction
- Round
- Regular Season - 31
- Venue
- Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
- Referee
- Ramon Abatti
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Recent form
Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · +2 goal difference
Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +2 goal difference
Our verdict
BetGenius backs Fluminense or Draw (Double Chance) at 76% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.
Match preview
Fluminense return to home territory looking to rebound from successive league defeats against title challengers Flamengo and Palmeiras. Despite those recent setbacks against elite opposition, the Rio de Janeiro club holds an imposing record at home this season, collecting eleven wins and three draws from fifteen fixtures while conceding just fourteen goals. Holding fourth position with fifty-one points, they remain firmly in the Copa Libertadores group stage places.
Santos make the trip sitting eighth in the table on forty-two points, having recorded a mixed run of two wins, one draw, and two losses across their last five matches. While Santos have shown resilience on the road with five away victories, their defensive vulnerabilities remain apparent, having conceded twenty-five goals in fifteen away trips.
Head-to-head encounters heavily tilt toward the hosts, with Fluminense unbeaten across four home meetings in the sample and victorious in their previous clash earlier in the campaign. With both squads managing notable absences, Fluminense's home resilience positions them favorably to take something from this contest.
Key factors
- Fluminense have lost only once in fifteen home league matches this season, winning eleven times.
- Santos have conceded twenty-five goals across fifteen away league matches, averaging 1.7 goals against per game on the road.
- Fluminense are undefeated in their last four home encounters against Santos, winning three and drawing one.
- Seven of the previous ten meetings between the two sides have produced under 2.5 goals, with an overall series average of 1.9 goals per match.
- Both teams face squad absences, with Fluminense missing German Cano, John Kennedy, and Guilherme Arana, while Santos are without Willian Arao and Arthur Melo.
Team news
Fluminense
- AlissonHip Injury
- John KennedyKnee Injury
- Matheus ReisKnee Injury
- J. SavarinoYellow Cards
- MartinelliInactive
Santos
- Arthur MeloMuscle Injury
- Gabriel BrazaoShoulder Injury
- Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
- Lucas VerissimoInjury
- G. EscobarInactive
Statistical comparison
Combined scoring rate: 3.4 goals per game (Fluminense at home plus Santos away).
Key players this season
Fluminense
- L. Acosta5A
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa15G
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PalmeirasPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 31 | +32 | 66 |
| 3 | Atletico ParanaensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 31 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | CruzeiroPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 31 | +4 | 51 |
| 5 | FluminensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification) | 31 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 | BahiaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 | SantosPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao PauloPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | +1 | 42 |
| 10 | RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 | BotafogoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 31 | -4 | 39 |
Head-to-head
- 5
- Fluminense
- 3
- Draws
- 2
- Santos
Fluminense have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.0 goals a game, only 40% went over 2.5.
- 2026-10-18Fluminense1-2Santos
- 2026-04-19Santos2-3Fluminense
- 2025-08-31Santos0-0Fluminense
- 2025-04-13Fluminense1-0Santos
- 2023-11-29Santos0-3Fluminense
Our record in Serie A
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.1 published market
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Published October 17, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.

