BetGenius
Round
Regular Season - 7
Venue
MEWA Arena, Mainz
Referee
Florian Badstubner
Form

Recent form

FSV Mainz 05
62Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-0D-2L · +2 goal difference

Werder Bremen
46Average

Last 5 matches · 1W-3D-1L · -6 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw

BetGenius backs FSV Mainz 05 or Draw (Double Chance) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

78%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Mainz sit fifth with ten points, while Werder sit eighth on nine. Mainz have struggled at home this season, scoring just 1.3 per game and losing two of three, whereas Werder have been solid at home, unbeaten in three matches and scoring 2.7 per game. Recent form shows Mainz winning three of their last five overall but all away, while Werder have managed only one win in five, with three draws.\n\nHistorically Mainz enjoy a slight edge at the Weserstadion, winning three of the last five meetings there and never drawing. Werder, however, have not won any of the last five away games against Mainz. The head‑to‑head record over ten meetings favours Bremen with five wins, three for Mainz and two draws, but the balance tips toward the home side in recent fixtures.\n\nInjury news further tilts the scales: Bremen list nine injured players, including several starters, whereas Mainz have four injuries. Bremen have kept no clean sheets this season and concede 1.7 goals per game at home, while Mainz have a better defensive record away. Both teams have been involved in relatively low‑scoring games lately, but the combined goal average suggests a match with at least two goals is likely.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Mainz are one point ahead of Bremen in the table and have a better overall goal difference
  2. In the last five meetings at this venue Mainz have won three and lost two with no draws
  3. Bremen list nine injured players, many of them regular starters
  4. Werder have kept no clean sheets this season, conceding 1.7 goals per home game
  5. Both teams' recent goal averages combine to suggest more than 2.5 goals in the match
Availability

Team news

FSV Mainz 05

  • D. KohrFoot Injury
  • SilasBroken shinbone
  • O. RuoppiKnee Injury
  • R. ZentnerHand Injury

Werder Bremen

  • F. AguCalf Injury
  • S. AlveroCalf Injury
  • S. MusahMuscle Injury
  • J. NjinmahThigh Injury
  • J. StageMuscle Injury
  • K. ToppKnee Injury
  • M. N'DiayeGroin Injury
  • N. StarkThigh Injury
Numbers

Statistical comparison

FSV Mainz 05 at homeWerder Bremen away
3
Played
3
0-1-2
W-D-L
0-2-1
1.3
Scored /game
1.3
2.3
Conceded /game
2.3
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
60%
BTTS (last 5)
80%
80%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
80%

Combined scoring rate: 2.6 goals per game (FSV Mainz 05 at home plus Werder Bremen away).

Players

Key players this season

FSV Mainz 05

  • P. Tietz5G
  • S. Becker3A

Werder Bremen

  • N. Füllkrug6G
  • M. Grüll4A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
2Borussia DortmundChampions League league stage6+714
3SC FreiburgChampions League league stage6+913
4Bayer LeverkusenChampions League league stage6+713
5FSV Mainz 05Europa League league stage6+410
6SV ElversbergQualifying6+110
7RB Leipzig6+59
8Werder Bremen609
9Hamburger SV6-99
10FC Augsburg6+48
11Eintracht Frankfurt6-68
History

Head-to-head

3
FSV Mainz 05
2
Draws
5
Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.1 goals a game, only 30% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-03-15Werder Bremen0-2FSV Mainz 05
  • 2025-11-01FSV Mainz 051-1Werder Bremen
  • 2025-01-31Werder Bremen1-0FSV Mainz 05
  • 2024-09-15FSV Mainz 051-2Werder Bremen
  • 2024-02-03FSV Mainz 050-1Werder Bremen
BetGenius

Our record in Bundesliga

66%57 won from 86 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST
Double Chance
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
78%
Confidence

Mainz hold a modest home advantage in the direct rivalry and have a slightly better points tally. Bremen’s injury list removes several key attackers, limiting their threat away. While Mainz have struggled to score at home, their away form shows they can find the net, and Bremen have not kept a clean sheet this season. The balance of these factors makes a home win or draw the most probable outcome, while the expected total goals exceed 2.5.

Explore

More from BetGenius

Published October 23, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.