BetGenius
Round
Regular Season - 10
Venue
Stadion Poljud, Split
Referee
Dario Bel
Form

Recent form

HNK Hajduk Split
76Strong

Last 5 matches · 4W-0D-1L · +1 goal difference

NK Varazdin
67Strong

Last 5 matches · 2W-3D-0L · +5 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
HNK Hajduk Split or Draw

BetGenius backs HNK Hajduk Split or Draw (Double Chance) at 76% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

76%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

First place meets second place in round 10 of the HNL as league leaders HNK Hajduk Split host NK Varazdin at Poljud. Hajduk Split sit at the summit on 19 points having won four and drawn one of their five home fixtures this season. With back-to-back home victories over Dinamo Zagreb and Ajax, the hosts have established strong domestic momentum on their own ground, conceding just three goals in five league matches there.

NK Varazdin arrive just a single point behind with 18 points from nine games, having suffered only one defeat all campaign. Their recent form is anchored by defensive resilience, having kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches across all competitions, including scoreless stalemates against Osijek and Aluminij followed by a 1-0 away triumph at Lokomotiva Zagreb. With four goals from forward L. Mamić, the visitors remain dangerous on the counter.

Recent history between these sides points toward a closely fought, low-scoring battle. Across their previous ten head-to-head meetings, seven finished under 2.5 goals with an average of 2.1 goals per match. Hajduk Split hold the upper hand in Split, having won three and drawn one of the last five home clashes against Varazdin, giving them an advantage in what shapes up as a disciplined tactical contest.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Hajduk Split remain unbeaten at home this season with four wins and one draw from five league outings, conceding only three goals.
  2. Varazdin have lost only once in nine league rounds and have kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches.
  3. Seven of the previous ten head-to-head fixtures between Hajduk Split and Varazdin have produced under 2.5 total goals.
  4. Hajduk Split have won three of the past five meetings between the sides played on their home ground, losing just once.
  5. Both leading scorers enter the clash on four league goals, with M. Šego leading Hajduk and L. Mamić leading Varazdin.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

HNK Hajduk Split at homeNK Varazdin away
3
Played
4
2-1-0
W-D-L
2-1-1
2.7
Scored /game
2
1
Conceded /game
1.5
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
40%
BTTS (last 5)
20%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 4.7 goals per game (HNK Hajduk Split at home plus NK Varazdin away).

Players

Key players this season

HNK Hajduk Split

  • M. Šego4G
  • Dali3A

NK Varazdin

  • L. Mamić4G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk SplitPromotion - Champions League (Qualification)10+1022
2Dinamo ZagrebPromotion - Europa League (Qualification)9+1119
3NK VarazdinPromotion - Conference League (Qualification)10+618
4NK OsijekPromotion - Conference League (Qualification)10+417
5HNK Rijeka9+417
6Istra 196110+112
History

Head-to-head

4
HNK Hajduk Split
3
Draws
3
NK Varazdin

HNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.1 goals a game, both teams scored in 60% of them.

  • 2026-10-18HNK Hajduk Split1-0NK Varazdin
  • 2026-08-02NK Varazdin2-1HNK Hajduk Split
  • 2026-05-03HNK Hajduk Split3-1NK Varazdin
  • 2026-02-28NK Varazdin1-1HNK Hajduk Split
  • 2025-11-29HNK Hajduk Split1-1NK Varazdin
BetGenius

Our record in HNL

69%25 won from 36 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
HNK Hajduk Split or Draw
76%
Confidence

Hajduk Split have built a sturdy record on home turf this season, capturing four victories and one draw while allowing just 0.6 goals per game. Varazdin have proved durable with only one defeat through nine rounds and will present a stern tactical test, but their away record includes just two wins in four attempts. Given that Hajduk have won three and drawn one of the last five meetings between the sides in Split, backing the league leaders to take at least a point carries solid probability against the division's second-placed club.

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Published October 16, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.