Under 2.5 Goals — 68% confidence
Kilmarnock have seen under 2.5 goals in four of their last five Premiership matches, including 1-1 draws against Aberdeen and Hearts, a 1-0 win over Hibernian, and a 0-0 draw with Aberdeen. At Rugby Park, Kilmarnock have managed only two goals across four league fixtures, averaging 0.5 goals per home game. Motherwell have also found goals hard to come by during their four-game losing sequence, failing to score in three of those matches against Celtic, Aberdeen, and Rangers. In head-to-head history, 60 percent of the last ten meetings between these teams produced under 2.5 goals, with an overall average of 2.3 goals per game.
Kilmarnock Under 1.5 Goals — 66% confidence
Kilmarnock have struggled for offensive output at home this season, scoring just two goals in four league games at Rugby Park for an average of 0.5 goals per match. Across their eight Premiership matches overall, Kilmarnock have scored seven goals (0.9 per game), failing to score more than once in any of their last five fixtures. Given their low scoring rate on home turf and the fact that they have failed to score in two of their four home games, the evidence points towards Kilmarnock staying under 1.5 team goals.
These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and team total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.