Motherwell

Motherwell are enduring a difficult run with five consecutive defeats, scoring just three goals in four home league outings this campaign. Heart of Midlothian have shown far greater potency, scoring twenty goals across nine league games and finding the net in all nine. Although Hearts have won only once on the road in five league attempts, Motherwell's poor form makes a home victory less probable. With three of the last four meetings at Fir Park finishing level, backing Hearts to win or draw covers the most likely outcomes.

Under 2.5 Goals — 68% confidence

Kilmarnock have seen under 2.5 goals in four of their last five Premiership matches, including 1-1 draws against Aberdeen and Hearts, a 1-0 win over Hibernian, and a 0-0 draw with Aberdeen. At Rugby Park, Kilmarnock have managed only two goals across four league fixtures, averaging 0.5 goals per home game. Motherwell have also found goals hard to come by during their four-game losing sequence, failing to score in three of those matches against Celtic, Aberdeen, and Rangers. In head-to-head history, 60 percent of the last ten meetings between these teams produced under 2.5 goals, with an overall average of 2.3 goals per game.

Kilmarnock Under 1.5 Goals — 66% confidence

Kilmarnock have struggled for offensive output at home this season, scoring just two goals in four league games at Rugby Park for an average of 0.5 goals per match. Across their eight Premiership matches overall, Kilmarnock have scored seven goals (0.9 per game), failing to score more than once in any of their last five fixtures. Given their low scoring rate on home turf and the fact that they have failed to score in two of their four home games, the evidence points towards Kilmarnock staying under 1.5 team goals.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and team total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Kilmarnock have struggled for offensive output at home this season, scoring just two goals in four league games at Rugby Park for an average of 0.5 goals per match. Across their eight Premiership matches overall, Kilmarnock have scored seven goals (0.9 per game), failing to score more than once in any of their last five fixtures. Given their low scoring rate on home turf and the fact that they have failed to score in two of their four home games, the evidence points towards Kilmarnock staying under 1.5 team goals.

Kilmarnock have seen under 2.5 goals in four of their last five Premiership matches, including 1-1 draws against Aberdeen and Hearts, a 1-0 win over Hibernian, and a 0-0 draw with Aberdeen. At Rugby Park, Kilmarnock have managed only two goals across four league fixtures, averaging 0.5 goals per home game. Motherwell have also found goals hard to come by during their four-game losing sequence, failing to score in three of those matches against Celtic, Aberdeen, and Rangers. In head-to-head history, 60 percent of the last ten meetings between these teams produced under 2.5 goals, with an overall average of 2.3 goals per game.

Over 2.5 Goals — 76% confidence

High-scoring affairs have defined this fixture, with 80 percent of the last ten head-to-head meetings producing over 2.5 goals at an average of 3.6 goals per game. Celtic have been potent on the road in the Premiership, averaging 2.7 goals scored per game across three away victories. Motherwell have shown defensive vulnerability by conceding seven goals in their last three league outings, including four at home against Aberdeen. With attacking contributors such as C. Duran, B. Nygren, and K. Hogh each tallying three league goals this campaign, the evidence supports another open contest that eclipses the 2.5 goal mark.

Celtic or Draw — 78% confidence

Celtic have compiled a strong domestic campaign with six wins from seven league games, including three wins from three on their travels. Motherwell have stumbled into a three-game losing skid in the Premiership and have won just one of their three home league fixtures. Celtic have dominated this match-up with eight victories from the last ten meetings, but recent losses in cup and European action alongside key squad absences make taking the double chance to cover the draw the most measured position.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Celtic have compiled a strong domestic campaign with six wins from seven league games, including three wins from three on their travels. Motherwell have stumbled into a three-game losing skid in the Premiership and have won just one of their three home league fixtures. Celtic have dominated this match-up with eight victories from the last ten meetings, but recent losses in cup and European action alongside key squad absences make taking the double chance to cover the draw the most measured position.

High-scoring affairs have defined this fixture, with 80 percent of the last ten head-to-head meetings producing over 2.5 goals at an average of 3.6 goals per game. Celtic have been potent on the road in the Premiership, averaging 2.7 goals scored per game across three away victories. Motherwell have shown defensive vulnerability by conceding seven goals in their last three league outings, including four at home against Aberdeen. With attacking contributors such as C. Duran, B. Nygren, and K. Hogh each tallying three league goals this campaign, the evidence supports another open contest that eclipses the 2.5 goal mark.

The evidence points directly toward three or more goals rather than stopping at a lower count. Across the last 10 head-to-head meetings between Motherwell and Celtic, 80 percent produced over 2.5 goals, generating a robust average of 3.6 goals per match. Celtic are averaging 2.7 goals per game on their league travels this season, scoring eight times in three away fixtures. Motherwell have conceded 1.6 goals per game overall and have been breached multiple times in recent outings, including four against Aberdeen and two against Dundee. Because the head-to-head profile consistently clears the three-goal mark and Celtic possess the firepower to drive the total single-handedly against a struggling defence, the 2.5 line is materially supported.

Both teams to score has occurred in 80 percent of the last ten head-to-head meetings between Dundee and Motherwell, with those games averaging 3.1 total goals. Dundee have scored in every home league fixture this season, while Motherwell have maintained a strong away scoring rate of 1.7 goals per match but have yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels.

Both teams to score has failed to land in 70 percent of the last ten meetings between the two sides. Aberdeen have failed to score in four of their five league matches this season, while Motherwell have kept clean sheets in both of their home fixtures.

Motherwell are unbeaten at home in the league with a win and a draw, whereas Aberdeen have suffered defeats in both of their away trips without scoring a goal. Motherwell have also won each of the last three league head-to-head fixtures played at Fir Park, giving them a strong platform while protecting against a potential draw.

Under 2.5 goals has landed in 80 percent of the last ten head-to-head encounters between these clubs, producing an average of 2.1 goals per match. Motherwell have conceded zero goals at home in the league this season, while Aberdeen have scored only twice across their five league fixtures and are yet to score on the road.

Both teams to score has landed in 80 percent of the last ten head-to-head encounters between Rangers and Motherwell, including six of the last seven meetings. Rangers have not failed to score in any Premiership fixture this season, averaging 1.3 goals per game, but have kept just one clean sheet in four league matches. Motherwell have also demonstrated sharp attacking output on their travels, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away league fixture.

Motherwell or Draw — 74% confidence

Motherwell enter the contest undefeated in the Premiership this season, having collected five points from three games. Their head-to-head record against Dundee United is particularly dominant, winning seven and drawing one of the last ten meetings. At Fir Park, Motherwell have won five of the past six clashes against Dundee United, keeping clean sheets in both home meetings during the 2025-26 period with matching 2-0 scorelines. Backing Motherwell to avoid defeat offers strong coverage against a Dundee United side that has lost two of its four league fixtures.

Over 2.5 Goals — 63% confidence

Recent fixtures involving both sides indicate regular goalmouth action. Motherwell's most recent league fixture ended in a high-scoring 3-3 draw at St Mirren, bringing their season league average to 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Dundee United have seen over 2.5 goals in three of their last four matches in all competitions, conceding seven goals across their opening four Premiership matches while netting four in their last away outing at Kilmarnock. The head-to-head average across the last ten meetings also stands at 2.7 goals per match.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Recent fixtures involving both sides indicate regular goalmouth action. Motherwell's most recent league fixture ended in a high-scoring 3-3 draw at St Mirren, bringing their season league average to 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Dundee United have seen over 2.5 goals in three of their last four matches in all competitions, conceding seven goals across their opening four Premiership matches while netting four in their last away outing at Kilmarnock. The head-to-head average across the last ten meetings also stands at 2.7 goals per match.

Motherwell enter the contest undefeated in the Premiership this season, having collected five points from three games. Their head-to-head record against Dundee United is particularly dominant, winning seven and drawing one of the last ten meetings. At Fir Park, Motherwell have won five of the past six clashes against Dundee United, keeping clean sheets in both home meetings during the 2025-26 period with matching 2-0 scorelines. Backing Motherwell to avoid defeat offers strong coverage against a Dundee United side that has lost two of its four league fixtures.

ST Mirren enter the fixture with positive momentum in the Premiership, winning both of their opening two league games without conceding a goal. Motherwell bring a historically formidable record in this matchup, having won or drawn eight of the previous ten meetings, which makes a straight home win risky. Backing ST Mirren on the double chance accounts for their strong early-season form while retaining coverage for a shared outcome in a fixture where 40% of the last ten meetings ended in draws.

SC Freiburg hold a commanding position after defeating Motherwell 3-1 away in their recent head-to-head meeting. Freiburg have won all five of their last five recorded matches, scoring at least two goals in every contest. The Double Chance (Home or Draw) provides strong protection against any conservative game-management approach from the hosts while reflecting their clear superior form.