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17:15
Sun 25 Oct
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes prediction
- Round
- Regular Season - 8
- Venue
- Stadium Municipal, Toulouse
- Referee
- Geoffrey Kubler
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Form
Recent form
Toulouse
62Average
Last 5 matches · 2W-2D-1L · +3 goal difference
Estac Troyes
14Very poor
Last 5 matches · 0W-1D-4L · -8 goal difference
Our call
Our verdict
Double Chance
Toulouse or Draw
BetGenius backs Toulouse or Draw (Double Chance) at 77% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.
77%
Confidence
Strong
Preview
Match preview
Toulouse welcome Estac Troyes to Stadium de Toulouse in Round 8 of Ligue 1, looking to build upon positive recent displays and move into the upper half of the table. Toulouse currently occupy 11th position with 9 points from 7 matches, showing a balanced record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats. Offensively, they have been fluent, registering 12 goals so far, although their defense has conceded 11 times.
Estac Troyes arrive in deep trouble near the foot of the table, sitting in 17th position inside the automatic relegation zone with just 4 points from 7 matches. Their defensive frailties have been severely exposed throughout the campaign, having allowed 16 goals across their fixtures, while finding the net only 5 times. With four defeats in their last five league outings, Troyes will need a massive defensive turnaround to halt their slide.
Historical trends also weigh heavily in favor of the hosts. Across their previous ten head-to-head encounters, Troyes have failed to record a single victory, suffering 6 defeats and earning 4 draws against Toulouse. With Toulouse demonstrating steady goalscoring output behind C. Tengstedt and Troyes missing key defensive personnel through injury, the home side holds clear advantages heading into this contest.
Analysis
Key factors
- Troyes sit 17th in the relegation zone with 5 losses in 7 matches and 16 goals conceded.
- Toulouse have scored 12 goals in 7 games, with each of their last five fixtures producing at least 3 goals.
- Troyes have failed to beat Toulouse in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, recording 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses.
- Troyes have conceded two or more goals in each of their last five competitive matches.
- Toulouse forward C. Tengstedt has been in fine scoring form with 5 league goals, supported by C. Casseres with 5 assists.
Availability
Team news
Toulouse
- M. NifloreInjury
- S. OppongCalf Injury
Estac Troyes
- Y. KoneKnee Injury
- A. OuzenadjiKnee Injury
- Y. TitiLeg Injury
- I. BouraHip Injury
Numbers
Statistical comparison
Toulouse at homeEstac Troyes away
3
Played
3
1-0-2
W-D-L
1-0-2
1
Scored /game
0.7
1.7
Conceded /game
1.7
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
80%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
100%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%
Combined scoring rate: 1.7 goals per game (Toulouse at home plus Estac Troyes away).
Players
Key players this season
Toulouse
- C. Tengstedt5G
- C. Cásseres5A
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lens | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le MansRelegation Playoffs | 7 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac TroyesRelegation | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le HavreRelegation | 7 | -6 | 2 |
History
Head-to-head
- 6
- Toulouse
- 4
- Draws
- 0
- Estac Troyes
Toulouse have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.6 goals a game.
- 2023-02-01Toulouse4-1Estac Troyes
- 2022-08-14Estac Troyes0-3Toulouse
- 2022-07-09Toulouse6-1Estac Troyes
- 2021-02-06Estac Troyes1-1Toulouse
- 2020-10-03Toulouse0-0Estac Troyes
BetGenius
Our record in Ligue 1
53%53 won from 100 settled predictions (1 void)
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.Predictions
4 published markets
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Combo Bet
Double Chance
Toulouse or Draw
77%
Confidence
Estac Troyes have struggled badly this season, losing 5 of their 7 league fixtures and sitting in 17th place with a negative goal difference of 11. They are winless against Toulouse in their last 10 meetings, having lost 6 and drawn 4. While Toulouse have had an uneven home record with 1 win and 2 losses, their overall form and attacking rhythm are far superior to Troyes, who have failed to win any of their last five matches. Backing Toulouse to either win or take a share of the points covers the most probable match outcomes based on form and head-to-head history.
Combo Bet
Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
Confidence
Toulouse have seen high goal totals across recent weeks, with all of their last five matches producing 3 or more goals, including scorelines of 3-0, 2-2, 2-3, 3-2, and 2-2. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Troyes possess the poorest defense in the league table neighbourhood, conceding 2.3 goals per game on average and shipping at least two goals in each of their previous five fixtures. Given Troyes defensive issues and Toulouse consistent attacking output led by C. Tengstedt with 5 goals, this match shapes up as another open contest likely to surpass the 2.5 goal mark.
Combo Bet
Combo Bet
Toulouse or Draw + Over 2.5 Goals
68%
Both must land · no better than
Toulouse or Draw — 77% confidence
Estac Troyes have struggled badly this season, losing 5 of their 7 league fixtures and sitting in 17th place with a negative goal difference of 11. They are winless against Toulouse in their last 10 meetings, having lost 6 and drawn 4. While Toulouse have had an uneven home record with 1 win and 2 losses, their overall form and attacking rhythm are far superior to Troyes, who have failed to win any of their last five matches. Backing Toulouse to either win or take a share of the points covers the most probable match outcomes based on form and head-to-head history.
Over 2.5 Goals — 68% confidence
Toulouse have seen high goal totals across recent weeks, with all of their last five matches producing 3 or more goals, including scorelines of 3-0, 2-2, 2-3, 3-2, and 2-2. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Troyes possess the poorest defense in the league table neighbourhood, conceding 2.3 goals per game on average and shipping at least two goals in each of their previous five fixtures. Given Troyes defensive issues and Toulouse consistent attacking output led by C. Tengstedt with 5 goals, this match shapes up as another open contest likely to surpass the 2.5 goal mark.
These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.
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- Double chance: Double chance predictions · How double chance works · Double chance record
- Over 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 predictions · How goals markets settle · Over 2.5 record
- Combo bet: Multi bets · How multi bets work
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Published October 24, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.