BetGenius
Round
League C - 4
Venue
A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Referee
David Dickinson
Form

Recent form

Estonia
72Strong

Last 5 matches · 3W-2D-0L · +3 goal difference

Iceland
64Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · +2 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Iceland or Draw

BetGenius backs Iceland or Draw (Double Chance) at 76% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

76%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Estonia host Iceland in UEFA Nations League C action, looking to build on the hard-fought 1-1 draw they earned in the reverse fixture in late September. The hosts have demonstrated solid defensive organisation, lining up in a 5-3-2 shape that restricted Iceland in their previous encounter and helped them maintain a competitive start to their group campaign.

Iceland come into this clash in impressive scoring form, having followed up the opening stalemate against Estonia with back-to-back 3-0 victories over Luxembourg and Bulgaria. With seven goals scored and just one conceded across their three group matches, the visitors possess considerable attacking momentum.

While Estonia have proven resilient on home soil with recent 1-0 wins over Lithuania and the Faroe Islands, Iceland's higher offensive ceiling and consecutive clean sheets give them the upper hand heading into Tallinn.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Iceland are unbeaten in the Nations League group with two wins and one draw, scoring seven goals and conceding only one.
  2. Both historical meetings between these two sides finished in 1-1 draws, including their encounter in September 2026.
  3. Iceland have kept clean sheets in each of their last two matches, defeating Luxembourg 3-0 away and Bulgaria 3-0 at home.
  4. Estonia have conceded no more than one goal in four of their last five matches across all competitions.
  5. None of Estonia's last five matches have exceeded 2.5 total goals.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Estonia at homeIceland away
1
Played
1
1-0-0
W-D-L
1-0-0
—
Scored /game
—
—
Conceded /game
—
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
20%
BTTS (last 5)
20%
0%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%
Players

Key players this season

Iceland

  • O. Óskarsson3G · 2A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

History

Head-to-head

0
Estonia
2
Draws
0
Iceland

all 2 of the last meetings between these two ended level.

  • 2026-09-26Iceland1-1Estonia
  • 2023-01-08Iceland1-1Estonia
BetGenius

Our record in UEFA Nations League

69%123 won from 177 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

2 published markets

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Iceland or Draw
76%
Confidence

Iceland enter this fixture unbeaten in their three Nations League matches, recording two dominant 3-0 wins following an initial 1-1 draw with Estonia. They have conceded only one goal across the campaign while averaging over two goals scored per match. Estonia's compact five-man defensive line has kept their games low-scoring, including two 1-1 draws in their recorded meetings with Iceland. Backing Iceland to secure at least a point reflects their superior current form while respecting Estonia's stubborn defensive structure at home.

GoalsLOST
Total Goals
Over 1.5 Goals
74%
Confidence

Iceland have been potent in group play, scoring seven goals across three matches, while Estonia found the net against them in the 1-1 draw in September. However, Estonia's 5-3-2 defensive setup has kept scores tight, with none of their last five matches exceeding two total goals. Both head-to-head meetings between these sides finished exactly 1-1. The evidence strongly supports at least two goals being scored, but does not sufficiently justify a third goal against Estonia's disciplined low block.

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Published October 5, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.