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Sun 11 Oct · 12:00

Southampton vs Portsmouth prediction

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Round
Regular Season - 9
Venue
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Referee
Adam Herczeg, England

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Southampton
67Strong

Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +4 goal difference

Portsmouth
61Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-2D-1L · +1 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Southampton or Draw

BetGenius backs Southampton or Draw (Double Chance) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

78%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Southampton welcome Portsmouth to St Mary's in a fiercely contested South Coast derby, with the hosts looking to build on an impeccable record on home soil. Southampton have taken maximum points from their four home league fixtures this campaign, scoring 15 goals in the process at an average of 3.8 per game. Attacking duo C. Larin and F. Azaz have been central to that offensive output, combining for ten league goals so far.

Portsmouth travel sitting in 19th place, having collected eight points from their opening seven fixtures. John Mousinho's side have shown resilience on the road with only one defeat from three away matches, but their squad depth is severely tested by an extensive injury list heading into this fixture.

Historically, league meetings between these two rivals have been tightly contested affairs, with each of the last four Championship encounters ending all square. While Southampton possess significant attacking momentum at home, Portsmouth's tendency to dig in during derby fixtures suggests a competitive matchup.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Southampton have won four out of four home matches in the league, scoring 15 goals and conceding four.
  2. C. Larin has scored seven goals and F. Azaz has contributed three goals and four assists for the hosts.
  3. Portsmouth have eight players ruled out through injury, including C. Ogilvie, J. Murphy, and Marezi.
  4. The last four league meetings between the clubs have all ended in draws.
  5. Southampton have failed to score in zero of their eight Championship matches this season.
Availability

Team news

Southampton

  • F. DownesAnkle Injury

Portsmouth

  • B. ArthurBack Injury
  • L. Brooke-SmithAnkle Injury
  • M. KosznovszkyKnee Injury
  • J. MurphyGroin Injury
  • C. OgilvieKnee Injury
  • F. UmehHamstring Injury
  • K. AndersonOverload
  • C. ShaughnessyInjury
  • C. BishopInactive
  • J. SwiftInactive
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Southampton at homePortsmouth away
6
Played
6
5-1-0
W-D-L
2-2-2
2.7
Scored /game
1
0.7
Conceded /game
0.8
33%
Clean sheets
33%
17%
Failed to score
33%
40%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 3.7 goals per game (Southampton at home plus Portsmouth away).

Players

Key players this season

Southampton

  • C. Larin7G
  • F. Azaz5A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
5West BromPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+320
6Stoke CityPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+219
7WolvesPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+318
8SouthamptonPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+1117
9QPR11+317
10Blackburn11+115
11Sheffield Utd11+115
12Millwall11015
13Portsmouth11015
14Wrexham11-114
15Bolton11-314
16Bristol City11-314
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
2
Southampton
4
Draws
0
Portsmouth

Southampton have won 2 of the last 6 meetings, averaging 2.2 goals a game, only 33% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-10-11Southampton1-0Portsmouth
  • 2026-01-25Portsmouth1-1Southampton
  • 2025-09-14Southampton0-0Portsmouth
  • 2019-09-24Portsmouth0-4Southampton
  • 2012-04-07Southampton2-2Portsmouth
BetGenius

Our record in Championship

63%137 won from 216 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

2 published markets

1 locked — upgrade to unlock
FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Southampton or Draw
78%
Confidence

Southampton have been formidable at St Mary's this term, winning all four of their home matches while averaging 3.8 goals per game. They have scored in every single league match this season. In contrast, Portsmouth are dealing with eight confirmed absentees due to injury, significantly limiting their rotation options. However, four consecutive league meetings between these rivals have ended in draws, including 1-1 and 0-0 scorelines across the 2025 and 2026 fixtures. Covering the draw alongside the home victory accounts for the historical competitiveness of this derby while reflecting Southampton's decisive advantage in home form and squad availability.

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Published October 9, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.