Villarreal

Valencia remain winless at home through five league matches, with a record of two draws and three losses. Across those five games, they managed just two goals and failed to score on four occasions. Villarreal have lost only twice in five away league fixtures and have produced 1.4 goals per match away from home. Furthermore, Villarreal have had the upper hand in recent head-to-head encounters, winning five of the last ten meetings while Valencia have won only twice. Backing Villarreal to take at least a point covers both an away victory and a low-scoring draw.

Liverpool’s two‑game winning streak, high scoring average and 3‑1 edge in the recent head‑to‑head favour a home win or at least a draw. Villarreal’s recent form is uneven and they are missing two players, while Liverpool’s injuries involve peripheral squad members. The combined goal expectation exceeds 2.5, supporting the over‑2.5 call.

Villarreal hold a strong historical home record in this fixture, having recorded four wins and one draw across five home meetings with Elche, including a 2-1 victory in their most recent encounter in March 2026. The hosts have scored in every home league game this season, averaging 2.0 goals per match on their own pitch. Elche have shown attacking capability on the road with seven goals scored across four away trips, but they have managed just one win from eight league games overall and enter this match without the suspended Federico Redondo Solari. Backing Villarreal on the double chance accounts for Elche's tendency to draw away matches while acknowledging the host's clear head-to-head superiority.

Villarreal showed positive attacking returns in their opening European match despite falling 3-2 to Borussia Dortmund, and they followed that up with comfortable 3-1 victories against Malaga and Levante. Although they narrowly fell 1-0 to Real Madrid recently, their defensive organisation held firm against top-tier opposition. With home advantage on their side, Villarreal have the foundation to stay competitive throughout the match.

Napoli have delivered mixed results on their travels, including a 1-1 draw at Fiorentina and a 3-2 defeat against Inter. While their recent domestic form features clean-sheet wins over Bologna and Frosinone, their offensive output was limited in their 1-0 European defeat against Arsenal. Historically, meetings between these two sides have tended to be closely contested, with four of their five head-to-head matches producing under 2.5 goals. Taking Villarreal to win or draw covers the most probable game scripts.

Real Madrid have been dominant at home this season, collecting maximum points from three outings with an average of four goals scored per match. Kylian Mbappe has led the line effectively with seven league goals. While absences to Eder Militao, F. Valverde, and D. Huijsen leave the home side vulnerable defensively, Villarreal's complete lack of clean sheets through seven matches makes it difficult for the visitors to keep Madrid quiet. Villarreal have recorded two draws and a defeat in four away matches, making a home result with defensive caution the most probable outcome.

Villarreal or Draw — 76% confidence

Villarreal have dominated this fixture at home, going unbeaten across five recorded head-to-head encounters against Levante with four wins and one draw. Levante remain winless on the road this season with two draws and a defeat, having failed to find the net in any of their three away fixtures.

Under 2.5 Goals — 68% confidence

Levante away matches have averaged just one goal per game this season, with two of their three road fixtures finishing in 0-0 draws. Their inability to score on the road, combined with two clean sheets kept away from home, points towards a low-scoring match.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Levante away matches have averaged just one goal per game this season, with two of their three road fixtures finishing in 0-0 draws. Their inability to score on the road, combined with two clean sheets kept away from home, points towards a low-scoring match.

Villarreal have dominated this fixture at home, going unbeaten across five recorded head-to-head encounters against Levante with four wins and one draw. Levante remain winless on the road this season with two draws and a defeat, having failed to find the net in any of their three away fixtures.

Malaga have struggled in front of goal, scoring just one goal in four league fixtures and failing to score in three of them. They also enter the match with five reported injuries in their squad, including M. Diarra and J. Lobete. In contrast, Villarreal have shown higher offensive output, scoring six goals in four games. While Villarreal have defensive vulnerabilities that make a straight away win less reliable, their superior attacking output positions them well to secure at least a point.

Real Betis enter this fixture in superior form, winning three of their first four La Liga games and sitting fifth in the table. Villarreal are currently winless in league action with two draws and two defeats, conceding an average of two goals per game. Backing Real Betis on the double chance covers both an away victory and the draw, which is well-supported given Villarreal's struggles to secure all three points and their ongoing defensive absences.

Borussia Dortmund or Draw — 78% confidence

Borussia Dortmund hold positive form coming into this fixture, having secured three straight wins against 1899 Hoffenheim, HEBC, and Hamburger SV. Villarreal, by contrast, are winless in four straight matches, conceding three goals at home to Deportivo La Coruna and drawing 2-2 with Atletico Madrid and Racing Santander. Although Dortmund have several defensive players sidelined, including N. Schlotterbeck, R. Bensebaini, and E. Can, their home advantage and attacking rhythm provide a solid platform to take at least a point.

Over 2.5 Goals — 76% confidence

Both sides have consistently participated in high-scoring fixtures in recent weeks. Four of Borussia Dortmund's last five games have produced at least three total goals, driven by a potent attack that has struck ten times across their last three matches. Villarreal have also seen over 2.5 goals land in four of their last five outings, scoring two goals in four of those games while conceding eight across their last four matches. Additionally, their previous Champions League meeting produced four goals in a 4-0 Dortmund victory.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Both sides have consistently participated in high-scoring fixtures in recent weeks. Four of Borussia Dortmund's last five games have produced at least three total goals, driven by a potent attack that has struck ten times across their last three matches. Villarreal have also seen over 2.5 goals land in four of their last five outings, scoring two goals in four of those games while conceding eight across their last four matches. Additionally, their previous Champions League meeting produced four goals in a 4-0 Dortmund victory.

Borussia Dortmund hold positive form coming into this fixture, having secured three straight wins against 1899 Hoffenheim, HEBC, and Hamburger SV. Villarreal, by contrast, are winless in four straight matches, conceding three goals at home to Deportivo La Coruna and drawing 2-2 with Atletico Madrid and Racing Santander. Although Dortmund have several defensive players sidelined, including N. Schlotterbeck, R. Bensebaini, and E. Can, their home advantage and attacking rhythm provide a solid platform to take at least a point.

Both teams enter this fixture with a zero percent clean sheet record across their first three matches of the season. Deportivo La Coruna have scored in every fixture so far, tallying five goals in three games with forward Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in strong form with three goals. Villarreal have also shown offensive potency, scoring four goals across two difficult away matches before being shut out at Alaves, while conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game. Given the defensive concessions on both sides and Deportivo's consistent scoring run, both teams finding the net represents a highly probable outcome.

Alaves have started the season strongly with four points from two matches (1W, 1D) and won their only home game 3-0. Furthermore, in the last five head-to-head encounters hosted by Alaves, the home side has remained undefeated against Villarreal with three wins and two draws. With Villarreal drawing both of their opening league fixtures, backing Alaves to win or draw is well-supported.

Yes — 72% confidence

Both teams have scored in 100% of their league matches this season, with Villarreal participating in back-to-back 2-2 draws and Alaves scoring four goals across two matches. Historically, both teams have found the net in 80% (8 of 10) of their previous head-to-head meetings, which average 3.1 goals per match.

Alaves or Draw — 75% confidence

Alaves have started the season strongly with four points from two matches (1W, 1D) and won their only home game 3-0. Furthermore, in the last five head-to-head encounters hosted by Alaves, the home side has remained undefeated against Villarreal with three wins and two draws. With Villarreal drawing both of their opening league fixtures, backing Alaves to win or draw is well-supported.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (both teams to score and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Both teams have scored in 100% of their league matches this season, with Villarreal participating in back-to-back 2-2 draws and Alaves scoring four goals across two matches. Historically, both teams have found the net in 80% (8 of 10) of their previous head-to-head meetings, which average 3.1 goals per match.

Atletico Madrid began their season with a solid 2-0 home victory and have lost only once in their last five home meetings against Villarreal. With Villarreal coming off a 2-2 away draw and five of the last ten head-to-heads ending in stalemates, Atletico holding at least a point remains the most probable outcome.