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Sat 29 Aug · 15:00

Tukums vs FS Jelgava prediction

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Round: Regular Season - 28
Referee: A. Anufrijevs

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Tukums

25Very poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-0D-4L · -8 goal difference

FS Jelgava

52Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · +2 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance

Tukums or Draw

BetGenius backs Tukums or Draw (Double Chance) at 70% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

70%

Confidence

Solid

Preview

Match preview

Tukums host FS Jelgava in round 28 of the Virsliga, with both sides seeking to secure crucial points in the lower half of the standings. Tukums enter this clash in 9th place with 20 points, having endured a challenging campaign largely due to their struggles on the road. However, their home form tells a vastly different story: all four of their league wins this season have come on home turf (4-4-5 record), where they average 1.8 goals scored per game.

FS Jelgava sit in 7th position on 28 points, having recently snapped a four-match losing streak with a 3-2 away victory against bottom side Ogre United. On their travels, Jelgava have registered three wins, five draws, and five defeats in 13 matches, scoring 15 goals while conceding 23. While they defeated Tukums 4-1 at home in June, their visits to Tukums have historically been far more difficult.

Head-to-head records at Tukums heavily lean toward the hosts avoiding defeat: across five documented encounters in Tukums, the home side is unbeaten with two wins and three draws, including a dominant 5-0 victory earlier this season in May 2026. Given Tukums' dependable home scoring output and Jelgava's defensive vulnerabilities on the road, a positive result for the hosts remains a strong probabilistic proposition.

Analysis

Key factors

Tukums are unbeaten at home in five recorded head-to-head fixtures against FS Jelgava (2 wins, 3 draws), including a 5-0 victory in May 2026.
All four of Tukums' league victories this season have come at home, where they average 1.8 goals scored per match and have failed to score in just one of 13 games.
FS Jelgava have managed only three victories in 13 away league fixtures (3 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses), conceding 23 goals in the process.
Head-to-head history shows frequent goals, with an average of 3.1 goals per game and 80% both-teams-to-score rate across the last 10 meetings.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Tukums at homeFS Jelgava away

Played

5-4-6

W-D-L

4-6-5

1.8

Scored /game

1.3

1.5

Conceded /game

1.6

Clean sheets

20%

Failed to score

40%

BTTS (last 5)

40%

60%

Over 2.5 (last 5)

40%

Combined scoring rate: 3.1 goals per game (Tukums at home plus FS Jelgava away).

Table

Table context

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
4	FK Liepaja	34	0	47
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	+2	45
6	Super Nova	33	-15	38
7	FS Jelgava	33	-22	32
8	Grobiņa	33	-31	29
9	Tukums	34	-21	25
10	Ogre United	33	-48	18

History

Head-to-head

Full record →

1
Tukums: 5
Draws: 4
FS Jelgava

FS Jelgava have won 4 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 3.3 goals a game, both teams scored in 80% of them.

2026-08-29Tukums1-4FS Jelgava
2026-06-21FS Jelgava4-1Tukums
2026-05-01Tukums5-0FS Jelgava
2026-03-08FS Jelgava2-1Tukums
2025-11-09Tukums1-1FS Jelgava

BetGenius

Our record in Virsliga

55%22 won from 40 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST

Double Chance

Tukums or Draw

70%

Confidence

Tukums have collected all four of their season wins at home, posting a 4-4-5 record while failing to score in only one of their 13 home fixtures (averaging 1.8 goals per match). FS Jelgava have won only three of 13 away matches and remain winless in five recorded head-to-head visits to Tukums (two losses, three draws), including a 5-0 loss on this ground in May 2026. Double chance covering Tukums or a draw offers a well-supported, balanced position.

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