Virsliga (Latvia)

Ogre United have conceded 81 goals in 33 league fixtures, giving up an average of 2.0 goals per game at home and keeping only two clean sheets all season. Auda have failed to score in just one of their 16 away matches and average 1.5 goals scored per trip. Four of the last five matches for each side have produced at least two goals, providing strong backing for over 1.5 match goals. However, stepping up to over 2.5 is not adequately supported by the evidence. None of the three previous meetings between these teams this season saw three goals, ending in 1-1, 2-0, and 1-0 scorelines with an average of 1.67 goals per game. Furthermore, Auda's defence has conceded only 18 goals in 16 away games, and Ogre United have scored just once across all three meetings with Auda. Two or more goals aligns well with the defensive and attacking records, but a third goal lacks sufficient statistical backing.

Auda carry an extensive advantage across the season's sample. The 46-point difference between third-placed Auda and tenth-placed Ogre United reflects a substantial gulf in quality. Ogre United have lost 23 of their 33 league fixtures and conceded 81 goals, demonstrating persistent defensive instability. Auda have won nine of their 16 away fixtures, conceded only 34 goals in total, and kept 13 clean sheets. Having already beaten Ogre United twice this season without defeat, the visitors are well positioned to take maximum points.

Ogre United have found goalscoring difficult across the campaign, managing only 33 goals in 33 matches and failing to score in ten fixtures. They face an Auda side that concedes approximately one goal per game and has kept 13 clean sheets. In head-to-head encounters, Ogre United failed to find the net in both of the last two meetings, losing 1-0 and 2-0. The combination of Auda's solid defensive record and the hosts' offensive struggles points toward at least one clean sheet.

BTTS No — 62% confidence

Ogre United have found goalscoring difficult across the campaign, managing only 33 goals in 33 matches and failing to score in ten fixtures. They face an Auda side that concedes approximately one goal per game and has kept 13 clean sheets. In head-to-head encounters, Ogre United failed to find the net in both of the last two meetings, losing 1-0 and 2-0. The combination of Auda's solid defensive record and the hosts' offensive struggles points toward at least one clean sheet.

Auda to win — 76% confidence

Auda carry an extensive advantage across the season's sample. The 46-point difference between third-placed Auda and tenth-placed Ogre United reflects a substantial gulf in quality. Ogre United have lost 23 of their 33 league fixtures and conceded 81 goals, demonstrating persistent defensive instability. Auda have won nine of their 16 away fixtures, conceded only 34 goals in total, and kept 13 clean sheets. Having already beaten Ogre United twice this season without defeat, the visitors are well positioned to take maximum points.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (both teams to score and match winner), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Rīgas FS have won all 10 head-to-head meetings between these clubs, including a decisive 4-0 victory when they met on 15 October 2026. The visitors have compiled 83 points and 26 wins from 33 league fixtures, while taking 14 wins from 16 away trips. Super Nova have suffered 17 defeats overall and lost 9 of 16 home matches this season, creating an undeniable gulf in quality that strongly favours an away victory.

Riga have generated immense attacking output throughout the season, scoring 90 goals in 33 league games and averaging 2.6 goals per match away from home. Grobiņa have struggled defensively, conceding 56 goals across 33 rounds at an average of 1.7 per contest. Across the past ten head-to-head meetings, fixtures have averaged 3.3 goals, with two of the three clashes in 2026 ending 3-0 and 4-0 in Riga's favor. With Riga capable of clearing the goal threshold almost single-handedly against a vulnerable back line, the evidence materially supports reaching at least three goals rather than settling on the lower line.

Rigas FS have been dominant on their travels this season, winning 13 of their 14 away league matches while conceding just 0.6 goals per game. They have also won each of their last three visits to Auda across all competitions. Auda are in good form themselves with a five-match unbeaten run, making a positive result for the league leaders via win or draw the most well-supported outcome.

Tukums have gathered all 23 of their season points at home where they average 1.8 goals scored per match across 15 fixtures. Grobina have struggled for offensive output on the road, netting only eight goals in 15 away outings while conceding 32. Given Grobina's nine away defeats and Tukums' relative stability at home, the hosts hold the upper hand to take at least a point from this encounter.

Super Nova or Draw — 76% confidence

Super Nova have demonstrated superior consistency away from home, taking seven wins from 14 road matches while conceding just one goal per game. Ogre United have managed only one win in 14 home fixtures and have conceded 30 goals in that span, making the visitors well placed to secure at least a point.

Over 2.5 Goals — 67% confidence

Ogre United have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five matches, averaging 2.1 goals conceded per home game this season. Additionally, 80 percent of the previous five meetings between Ogre United and Super Nova have produced over 2.5 goals.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Ogre United have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five matches, averaging 2.1 goals conceded per home game this season. Additionally, 80 percent of the previous five meetings between Ogre United and Super Nova have produced over 2.5 goals.

Super Nova have demonstrated superior consistency away from home, taking seven wins from 14 road matches while conceding just one goal per game. Ogre United have managed only one win in 14 home fixtures and have conceded 30 goals in that span, making the visitors well placed to secure at least a point.

Riga possess a substantial advantage across all major statistical metrics, holding a 38-point lead over Jelgava in the table and boasting 85 goals scored to Jelgava's 32. Across their last 10 head-to-head fixtures, Riga have remained undefeated with 8 wins, including an 8-0 away win against Jelgava earlier this season. Jelgava have struggled at home with 9 losses in 15 matches and failing to score in 8 of those games, pointing toward an away victory.

FK Liepaja have established a reliable record on home soil, winning eight and drawing two of their 13 league matches while averaging two goals scored per home fixture. BFC Daugavpils have struggled for away victories all season, managing just two wins in 14 road games and conceding 22 goals in that stretch. In addition, Liepaja have avoided defeat in all four recorded home head-to-head matches against Daugavpils, making the home side avoiding defeat the most supported outcome.

Auda hold a decisive statistical edge across all key metrics. They sit third in the table with 57 points, having won 9 of their 15 home fixtures with a goal difference of plus 12 at home. Ogre United sit in tenth place with 20 defeats in 28 league matches, including 12 losses from 15 away games where they concede an average of 3.0 goals per game. The previous meeting at Auda resulted in a comfortable 2-0 home victory.

Riga to win — 80% confidence

Riga possess a major quality advantage across all key metrics, holding a 32-point lead and a plus-54 goal difference compared to Super Nova's minus-nine. The head-to-head record reflects complete dominance with Riga winning nine of the last ten meetings, including all five previous visits to Super Nova where they scored at least four goals on every occasion.

Over 2.5 Goals — 75% confidence

Direct encounters between these sides have averaged 4.4 goals per match over a 10-game sample, with 70 percent surpassing the 2.5-goal threshold. Riga boast the division's most prolific attack with 84 goals scored in 29 matches, while Super Nova concede an average of 1.7 goals per game at home.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (match winner and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Direct encounters between these sides have averaged 4.4 goals per match over a 10-game sample, with 70 percent surpassing the 2.5-goal threshold. Riga boast the division's most prolific attack with 84 goals scored in 29 matches, while Super Nova concede an average of 1.7 goals per game at home.

Riga possess a major quality advantage across all key metrics, holding a 32-point lead and a plus-54 goal difference compared to Super Nova's minus-nine. The head-to-head record reflects complete dominance with Riga winning nine of the last ten meetings, including all five previous visits to Super Nova where they scored at least four goals on every occasion.

Rīgas FS to win — 80% confidence

Rīgas FS hold an overwhelming advantage across all key indicators. They lead the Virsliga table by 32 points over BFC Daugavpils and have won 13 of their 14 away matches this season. Crucially, the head-to-head record shows complete dominance with Rīgas FS winning all 10 of their last 10 meetings against Daugavpils, making an away victory the most probable outcome.

Rīgas FS Over 1.5 Goals — 75% confidence

Rīgas FS have generated 68 goals in 28 league matches, averaging 2.4 goals per game overall and 1.9 goals per match on the road. In direct clashes against BFC Daugavpils, Rīgas FS have scored two or more goals in eight of their last 10 meetings, including three separate matches in the current campaign where they scored at least three.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (match winner and team total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Rīgas FS have generated 68 goals in 28 league matches, averaging 2.4 goals per game overall and 1.9 goals per match on the road. In direct clashes against BFC Daugavpils, Rīgas FS have scored two or more goals in eight of their last 10 meetings, including three separate matches in the current campaign where they scored at least three.

Rīgas FS hold an overwhelming advantage across all key indicators. They lead the Virsliga table by 32 points over BFC Daugavpils and have won 13 of their 14 away matches this season. Crucially, the head-to-head record shows complete dominance with Rīgas FS winning all 10 of their last 10 meetings against Daugavpils, making an away victory the most probable outcome.

FS Jelgava or Draw — 68% confidence

FS Jelgava have proved difficult to beat on the road, suffering only five defeats in 14 away games with four wins and five draws. In contrast, Grobiņa have managed just three wins from 14 home fixtures and enter this match having lost four of their last five league outings.

Under 2.5 Goals — 74% confidence

Grobiņa have the weakest attacking return in this section of the table, registering only 20 goals across 29 league matches and failing to score in 14 of them. In addition, each of the three head-to-head meetings between these clubs in 2026 finished under 2.5 goals, with scorelines of 2-0, 0-0, and 1-0, while 70 percent of their last ten encounters overall stayed below the 2.5 goal threshold.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Grobiņa have the weakest attacking return in this section of the table, registering only 20 goals across 29 league matches and failing to score in 14 of them. In addition, each of the three head-to-head meetings between these clubs in 2026 finished under 2.5 goals, with scorelines of 2-0, 0-0, and 1-0, while 70 percent of their last ten encounters overall stayed below the 2.5 goal threshold.

FS Jelgava have proved difficult to beat on the road, suffering only five defeats in 14 away games with four wins and five draws. In contrast, Grobiņa have managed just three wins from 14 home fixtures and enter this match having lost four of their last five league outings.

Riga to win — 75% confidence

Riga possess an undefeated home league record consisting of 12 wins and 3 draws across 15 matches, scoring 44 times and conceding only 12. In addition, Riga have dominated this specific matchup throughout 2026, winning all four meetings against Auda by scorelines of 2-0, 4-1, 2-1, and 4-1. With title ambitions on the line and a 10-point advantage over their visitors in the standings, Riga hold clear statistical advantages across the board.

Over 2.5 Goals — 72% confidence

Past fixtures between these sides have consistently delivered high goal counts, with 9 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings producing over 2.5 total goals at an average of 4.0 goals per game. Riga have maintained a 2.9 goals-per-game scoring rate both at home and across the season as a whole, failing to score in zero of their 15 home league outings.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (match winner and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Past fixtures between these sides have consistently delivered high goal counts, with 9 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings producing over 2.5 total goals at an average of 4.0 goals per game. Riga have maintained a 2.9 goals-per-game scoring rate both at home and across the season as a whole, failing to score in zero of their 15 home league outings.

Riga possess an undefeated home league record consisting of 12 wins and 3 draws across 15 matches, scoring 44 times and conceding only 12. In addition, Riga have dominated this specific matchup throughout 2026, winning all four meetings against Auda by scorelines of 2-0, 4-1, 2-1, and 4-1. With title ambitions on the line and a 10-point advantage over their visitors in the standings, Riga hold clear statistical advantages across the board.